Aged care may not be immune to the Coalition’s proposed public service cuts

The Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission could be significantly impacted if the Coalition wins the election and implements a freeze on public service recruitment, potentially resulting in up to 26% of the existing workforce being lost.

The Coalition, led by Peter Dutton, initially pledged to reduce the Australian Public Service (APS) by roughly 41,000 jobs, aiming to reverse Labor’s increase in sector roles from 2022. This would help prevent the APS from growing to over 213,000 roles.

The figure was tied to budget savings, with estimates ranging from $6 billion to $7 billion annually, potentially totaling $10 billion to $24 billion over four years. The plan targeted “back-office” roles, with assurances that frontline services, such as those in defence, home affairs, veterans’ affairs, and Services Australia, would be protected.

But after facing criticism and polling backlash, the Coalition backtracked significantly. They abandoned a controversial push to end work-from-home arrangements and clarified that the 41,000-job cut would not involve forced redundancies. 

Instead, they proposed achieving reductions over five years primarily through a combination of natural attrition and a hiring freeze. Mr Dutton indicated a focus on roles like diversity and inclusion officers or administrative positions. 

However, analysis showed that high attrition rates occur in frontline-heavy departments, with 57% of 2024 separations from home affairs, defence, Australian Taxation Office, and Services Australia.

With the majority of the 11,000 staff that leave the public service each year coming from those critical departments, it would be difficult to achieve cuts without affecting service delivery. 

According to a spokesperson for the Community and Public Sector Union, the Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission had a 2024 calendar attrition rate of 6%. If Mr Dutton’s staffing freeze plan comes to fruition, roughly 508 jobs would be lost over five years — the equivalent of 26.5% of the current workforce.

This is approximately the same number of public servants that have been hired by the Commission since 2022 to tackle a backlog of complaints and to reduce its reliance on external contractors and consultants. 

The plan with no blueprint

The Coalition maintains a commitment to reducing the APS to its size under the previous Liberal government (around 172,000 – 180,000 jobs) but has shifted rhetoric to emphasise flexibility and efficiency over mass sackings. 

They have promised to release detailed costings post-election, raising concerns about transparency in the lead-up to May 3. The policy now focuses on “wasteful spending” and capping APS growth, but lacks a clear roadmap for which roles or departments would be targeted.

Critics could argue that it is simply a plan copy-pasted from the United States President Donald Trump, although Mr Dutton is doing his best to avoid comparisons with the polarising political figure.

Unfortunately, there are gaps in the plan that leave a lot to be desired.

As reported by The Guardian, the Commission did not comment on the conclusions the union reached regarding potential job losses. Data published by the Australian Public Service Commission also indicates there are no service delivery roles at the Commission, meaning that employees should be immune to any cuts.

Meanwhile, the Coalition did not respond to The Guardian when asked about the impact on one of aged care’s most influential branches.

Melissa Donnelly, CPSU National Secretary, said it is a chaotic and poorly thought out plan. 

“This is the agency responsible for ensuring aged care is safe and accountable – slashing its staffing will leave it unable to do that critical job,” she told The Guardian. 

“It also highlights how chaotic and poorly thought through Peter Dutton’s public service cuts are. Cuts by attrition are by nature, uncontrolled and uneven reductions in staffing that primarily impact frontline services.”

Then there was the recent campaign bungle involving Coalition spokesperson James Paterson. After Mr Dutton had reinforced that voluntary redundancies would not be included in the public service attack, Mr Paterson said otherwise.

“We will cap the size of the Australian public service and we will reduce the numbers back to the levels they were three years ago through natural attrition and voluntary redundancies,” Mr Paterson said to RN Breakfast. 

When challenged about Mr Dutton’s policy change, Mr Paterson insisted that voluntary redundancies and natural attrition were always part of the plan. 

Ultimately, the plan reflects a broader Coalition narrative of fiscal restraint and smaller government, contrasting Labor’s investment in public services. Yet a long-term look at APS separation rates shows it has fluctuated between 6% – 9% since 2008 with no notable difference between who held government.

The greatest area of cost savings appears to be through cuts to external consultants or service providers. An audit into the Scott Morrison-led government’s final year found 54,000 outsourced full-time staff in 2021-22, roughly 37% of the public service. Outsourced service providers also made up almost 70% of external labour expenses. 

Labor has reduced these figures considerably, hence the necessary internal growth. It would surely be counterproductive to reverse that progress.