No relief in sight: Government predicts daunting nursing shortage

Australia is not producing enough nurses to meet growing demand, with a projected undersupply of just under 80,000 nurses set to place more burden on strained aged care and healthcare sectors. 

The Department of Health and Aged Care’s Nursing Supply and Demand Study 2023-2035 highlights several changing trends, including a decrease in the percentage of nurses aged under 29 and a drop in the percentage of Enrolled Nurses.

Instead, 60% of the nursing workforce will be aged between 30 and 49 by 2035, while 87.5% of the nursing workforce will be Registered Nurses (including Nurse Practitioners). 

Worryingly, there will be a total undersupply of 70.707 FTE with just under 80,000 nurses needed to fill the gap. For the aged care sector, there is a projected undersupply of 17,551 FTE, and these projections include 24/7 RN staffing and mandatory care minutes in residential aged care homes. 

Nursing growth not strong enough

The report reveals that the nursing sector grew by over 36,000 nurses between 2017 and 2022, despite COVID-19’s impact. However, it claimed even that growth is not enough, as “an ageing population and higher incidences of chronic diseases the Australian community requires more nurses.”

“This growth is not enough to meet the healthcare needs of Australians and is putting the health system and the existing nursing workforce under pressure.”

Limited nursing supply in rural, regional and remote areas continues to be a problem as well.

Australia’s focus on international recruitment looks set to increase, however, as the projected proportion of the workforce who received their initial qualification in Australia is expected to decrease from 80% in 2022 to 72% by 2035.

First Nations representation is also increasing, with 1.5% of the workforce identifying as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander, compared to 1.1% in 2017. Over 50% are working in major cities, with most in the eastern states. 

The National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Workforce Strategic Framework and Implementation Plan set a target of 3.43% of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people being represented in the national health workforce by 2031, meaning an estimated 9,088 additional Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander nurses are required to meet the supply target.

Workforce planning critical

The Nursing Supply and Demand Study provides a detailed look at five sectors: aged care, acute care, primary healthcare, mental health and ‘other’ such as nurses in education or government departments.

Aged care’s demand for nurses has been highly publicised, yet the sector still sits below acute care and primary healthcare in terms of the projected undersupply. Those sectors will require more support, and as of right now, can offer better pay than many aged care operators. 

On a positive note, the baseline supply is estimated to increase 324,989 FTE in 2023 to 422,575 FTE over the next decade, meaning the problem isn’t likely to worsen. That doesn’t decrease the gulf that exists, however. 

According to the report, “Workforce planning is critical to ensure alignment of nursing supply with demand required by the health and aged care systems to create a sustainable nursing workforce for Australia”. So what could that planning look like?

The following scenarios were presented:

• One which applied an increase in work hours by 1 shift per fortnight for nurses who currently work less than 0.75 FTE and are under 65 years old. Results in a gap by 2035 of 50,434 FTE
• One where the probability of leaving the workforce for any length of time is halved for nurses 30 years old or younger. Results in a gap by 2035 of 56,709 FTE

Both solutions sound easy, in theory, but would require effective workforce planning from governments and providers. Asking for more hours from nurses who are likely juggling family commitments also presents a challenge, as does retaining young nurses burdened by burnout and stress. 

The full report can be found on the Department of Health and Aged Care’s website.