Fresh figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirm that the number of Australians aged 85 and over will more than double in the next 25 years. That demographic shift has immediate consequences for aged care, particularly in regional and rural communities that already struggle to attract and retain staff.
Sector leaders say the warning signs are flashing red. Cassandra Winzar, Chief Economist at the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA), cautioned that “some facilities are operating well below full capacity because they can’t get enough workers”—a situation most acute in rural towns. Andrew Kinkade, Managing Director of Bupa Villages & Aged Care, echoed the concern, describing the crisis as
“far more severe in regional and rural Australia… with very real risks to the future of homes in communities outside major cities”.
As the government prepares to roll out the new Aged Care Act in November, the release of this data sharpens an uncomfortable reality: the workforce cliff is not decades away. It is unfolding now, and it is most visible outside the cities.
A growing demand, a shrinking supply
Older Australians are not evenly spread across the map. Inner regional and rural towns already have higher proportions of older residents, and many younger people leave for cities. That imbalance will only deepen as the population ages. By 2042, more than one million Australians will be over 85, many of them in towns that already struggle to keep a nurse or carer on the roster.
Yet only around 30 per cent of the aged care workforce is located outside major cities. Remote communities, which account for 2 per cent of the workforce, face the steepest gaps. A recent analysis estimated that rural Australia would need nearly 95,000 extra care workers simply to match the level of cover seen in metropolitan areas. Without intervention, the difference in access to aged care between city and country residents will widen into a gulf.
Why regional providers cannot compete
The shortages are not just about numbers. Rural providers face unique challenges: attracting professionals to towns with limited housing, schools and job prospects for partners, competing with better-paid industries, and managing high turnover when staff burn out from covering too many shifts.
Training is another barrier. Many regional students must leave their communities to complete aged care or nursing qualifications, and too few return. Providers also report fewer opportunities for ongoing development, leaving staff feeling stuck with little chance of progression. The result is a workforce that is thin, tired and ageing itself.
Policy responses are not keeping pace
The government has not ignored the crisis. Reforms have lifted wages by 15 per cent, mandated higher staffing levels in residential care, and channelled hundreds of millions into grants for rural services. Skilled migration is being encouraged through streamlined labour agreements, and Pacific workers are being trained for placements in Australian facilities. Incentives such as relocation payments and retention bonuses are available to entice workers to the bush.
Yet many in the sector say the support does not match the scale of the problem. Susi Tegen, Chief Executive of the National Rural Health Alliance, described the disparity in government attention as “geographic narcissism”, pointing out that rural communities often rely on volunteers while metro areas receive greater investment.
A workforce cliff
The aged care workforce crisis is not a future problem. It is here, and it is hitting rural communities first and hardest. If Australia is serious about giving older people dignity and choice in later life, it must reckon with the reality that aged care will need to grow faster in the regions than anywhere else. Without a clear plan to recruit, train and keep staff outside the cities, the cliff edge is not decades away. It is already in sight.
