Home care’s growth halted: The challenge of planning for the future on shifting terrain

Australia’s home care sector continues to wait in limbo as a result of the looming implementation of the new Aged Care Act and the Support at Home (SaH) program.

The Home Care Provider Outlook Report for 2025, conducted by Enkindle Consulting, paints a vivid picture of a sector striving for transformation amid significant uncertainty. Drawing from over 290 responses and 3,430 comments from home care leaders, the report reveals a pervasive sense of unease, encapsulated by one provider’s stark observation: “It’s hard to grow when the ground keeps shifting beneath us.”

Jennene Buckley, Consulting Director at Enkindle, a leading advisory specialist for the aged and home care industry, underscores this sentiment, noting the sector’s struggle to plan for an uncertain future. This article delves into the report’s findings and Buckley’s insights, highlighting how financial, regulatory, and informational uncertainties are challenging providers’ ability to deliver sustainable, client-centred care.

Financial viability: Sector on edge

The report identifies financial viability as the top challenge for home care providers in 2025, cited by 20.75% of respondents, surpassing even workforce shortages. This marks a significant shift, as providers grapple with unclear pricing models, reduced funding, and rising operational costs. Buckley explains that the concerns vary by provider type.

For Commonwealth Home Support Program (CHSP) providers, “ongoing concern around their level of grant funding” dominates, with legacy rates failing to keep pace with costs due to inadequate indexing. Home Care Package (HCP) providers, meanwhile, face uncertainty over SaH’s unit pricing model. “They don’t know what everyone else is charging,” Buckley says. “They need to put a price that’s palatable to their clients but also sustainable.” Without clear financial guidance, providers fear they cannot deliver on the reform agenda, with some warning that the sector risks collapse without urgent support.

The lack of pricing clarity is particularly acute for SaH, set to roll out in November 2025. Providers, especially smaller ones, are modelling significant deficits, with one reporting a $115,000 loss on case management due to their commitment to low caseloads for quality outcomes. The report notes that 10.38% of providers cite insufficient financial support for reform implementation as a major issue, compounding fears about sustainability

Buckley highlights the Catch-22: “Financial viability, lack of financial support, and timelines are all number one; without one, you cannot really achieve the other.”

This financial strain leaves providers in a precarious position, unable to invest confidently in the systems and workforce needed for reform.

Regulatory uncertainty: Moving start line

The implementation of the new Aged Care Act and its regulatory model is the top priority for providers, with 21.55% ranking it as their primary focus for 2025. Yet, the report reveals that uncertainty around timelines, rules, and compliance requirements is stifling progress. Buckley points to the absence of final subordinate legislation as a critical gap.

“We don’t have the final set of rules, which has the detail needed,” she says, noting that while consultation drafts have been released, providers are still “operating in the dark.” This lack of clarity affects 27.33% of providers waiting for more details before allocating resources to plan for the Act, and 17.58% for SaH.

The shifting timelines for reform exacerbate this unease. “The reform dates continue to change, particularly for Support at Home,” Buckley observes, describing a sector in a “state of uncertainty for four years now.” Providers echo this frustration, with one commenting, “A few months out and we still do not have all the information needed to move forward.”

The report highlights that 9.90% of providers see the tight timeframe for reform implementation as a top challenge, compounded by a lack of direct engagement from the Department of Health and Aged Care. Buckley notes a concerning gap in communication: “There’s been no webinars specifically for Support at Home for months, and no direct interaction with subject matter experts from government.”

Providers are calling for regular Q&A sessions, updated FAQs, and clearer guidelines to navigate the transition.

Balancing compliance and innovation

The reform agenda itself has emerged as the single biggest barrier to growth, cited by 21.6% of providers. The report describes it as “consuming all time and resources,” leaving little room for innovation or expansion. Buckley explains that providers are “absolutely focused on trying to get over the start line that keeps moving.” This focus drains resources, with 18.59% of providers noting they lack the capacity to plan for the Aged Care Act, and 8.51% saying the same for SaH.

Smaller providers, in particular, struggle, with one stating, “We’re doing our best with limited capacity, serving just 120 clients means we don’t have the resources for a dedicated project lead.”

Innovation, particularly in technology, is also stalled. While telehealth, smart home technology, and predictive analytics are seen as transformative, 18.15% of providers report their current systems are outdated and require replacement, and 20.16% are working with vendors to upgrade.

However, Buckley notes that technology vendors are equally stretched, focusing their resources on compliance-driven updates rather than broader innovation. “They’re trying to get what they need to get done with Service Australia, business, and government,” she says, highlighting how the entire industry is at a standstill.

Workforce challenges: A missed opportunity for innovation

Workforce shortages remain a persistent issue, yet the report reveals a reliance on traditional recruitment methods like SEEK and social media, with international pathways and on-demand platforms like Mable ranked as low priorities. Buckley was surprised by this finding, noting, “We’re still using very traditional mechanisms to recruit staff.”

She argues that providers must “reimagine the workforce” to address shortages in a competitive labour market. “Without a pipeline of workers, you cannot grow,” she warns, emphasising that innovative workforce strategies are critical for financial sustainability. Providers seeking growth often approach Enkindle, only to be asked, “What’s your workforce strategy?” Buckley believes that organisations innovating in this area will be the ones to thrive, as demand for home care is projected to double by 2042.

Small providers at risk

The report underscores the vulnerability of small providers, who face disproportionate challenges from regulatory burdens (19.6%), future price caps (21.4%), and increased competition (18.7%). Buckley echoes this concern, noting that “as a not-for-profit, future price caps will put additional pressure on an already underfunded system.”

Small providers fear being pushed out, with one stating, “We’re an industry at risk; only the large and well-resourced will survive.” The potential for industry consolidation looms large, threatening the diversity of care options, particularly in rural and under-resourced areas.

A path forward

Despite the uncertainty, providers are taking proactive steps. The report notes that 47% have appointed project leads to drive Aged Care Act readiness, and 32.27% are mobilising SaH implementation plans. However, success hinges on government action.

Providers are calling for sustained funding, clearer pricing models, and regular engagement through webinars and Q&As. Buckley stresses the need for “really regular engagement by the department, issuing answers to questions weekly.” Without this, the sector risks failing to deliver on the reform’s promise of client-centred care.

As Australia’s home care sector navigates this pivotal moment, the ground continues to shift. Providers are resilient, but the lack of clarity and support threatens their ability to adapt. Buckley’s insights and the report’s findings highlight an urgent need for transparency and resources to ensure the sector can not only survive but thrive in delivering quality care to an ageing population.

As one provider aptly put it, “Uncertainty is creating anxiety.” The question remains: will the government provide the stability needed to steady the ground beneath?