Australia has an aged care workforce problem. Migration is already part of how the sector is managing it.
CEDA estimates around 70,000 personal care workers in aged care – roughly one in six – are on temporary visas. It also estimates Australia will need at least 400,000 additional aged care workers by 2050.
So, what happens if migration becomes harder or more selective? For aged care leaders, it is a workforce planning question.
How reliant is Australia’s aged care workforce on migrant workers?
Migration is already a significant part of the aged care workforce.
FECCA’s Vision 2030, drawing on 2021 Census data, found that 51% of residential aged care service employees were born overseas. Around 39% also speak a language other than English at home.
Migrant workers are particularly important across frontline roles, including personal care, nursing assistance and support work.
That makes migration policy a provider-level workforce issue, not just a federal policy debate.
Why the current migration pathway isn’t enough
Australia already has an Aged Care Industry Labour Agreement (ACILA) covering nursing support workers, personal care assistants and aged or disabled carers.
But it’s not filling the gap quickly enough.
At the end of June 2025, just 2,426 temporary migrants were sponsored under aged care labour agreements. CEDA reports that 90% of visas under the scheme go to migrants already in Australia, suggesting the current pathway is doing more to retain workers here than to bring new workers into the sector.
The pathway can also be slow and expensive. Juniper reports that negotiating access to an ACILA can take up to 12 months, while providers face significant sponsorship costs.
CEDA has called for an essential skills visa for aged care occupations, arguing the current system is not delivering enough workers to address the shortage.
What happens if migration settings tighten?
For providers already dealing with aged care workforce shortages, fewer overseas workers would create another pressure point.
Hall & Wilcox say skilled migration is expected to remain critical to aged care as the broader migration system becomes more selective and compliance-focused. It also identifies housing, transport and settlement support as factors that directly affect whether overseas workers can enter and remain in the sector.
That matters particularly for regional and outer-metropolitan providers.
Leaders need to know how much their workforce relies on migrant care workers, where those workers are concentrated and how exposed they are if recruitment pathways slow down.
Migration won’t solve aged care workforce shortages on its own. Providers still need to retain experienced workers, strengthen local recruitment and invest in training and career development.
FECCA’s Vision 2030 also calls for migration-ageing scenario planning to inform workforce, housing and regional development strategies.
What should leaders be planning for?
Migration settings can change. Workforce demand is not going away. Providers need to know where they rely on migrant workers and have a plan if access to those workers changes.
Providers should be asking:
- How reliant are we on temporary visa holders?
- Where are our biggest workforce gaps?
- What happens if overseas recruitment slows?
- Are we retaining the workers we already have?
- Where can we strengthen local recruitment and training?
- What would a change in migration settings mean for service delivery?
With a quickly ageing population, Australia will need more aged care workers. Migration is one part of meeting that demand.
