Full but fragile: the hidden risks behind 92%+ occupancy

Occupancy rates are finally back above 90%, but the story behind the numbers is far less stable. Admissions mix, staffing minutes, and capital pricing are pulling in opposite directions, creating a sector that looks strong on paper but is showing cracks beneath the surface.

Over the past year, residential aged care crossed an important psychological line, back above 90% occupancy for the first time since 2019 and now hovering around the 92% mark nationally. That’s a welcome recovery, but it’s not the whole picture. The latest Mirus Industry Analysis (February 2025 edition) shows permanent admissions slipping while respite usage has spiked, Average Daily Subsidy (ADS) growth is largely flat, and total care minutes are running above target. Meanwhile, room and RAD pricing are moving up. Together, this points to a sector that’s full, but financially and operationally fragile.

1) Occupancy up, permanents down, respite up: stability risk

In August, sector-wide occupancy rose to 92.07%, yet permanent admissions fell 4.43% while respite bed-day usage jumped 13.03%. July’s snapshot showed 91.98% with permanent admissions down 15.5%, and a dip in respite versus the prior month, underscoring volatility. When occupancy is propped up by respite rather than permanent placements, length of stay and revenue predictability suffer. Expect lumpier cashflow and sharper bed-turnover management pressures if this pattern persists, the Mirus report warns.

2) “Full” doesn’t mean funded: care minutes now above target

Mirus data shows total care time is exceeding the 215-minute target by around nine minutes on average in the latest read. That’s clinically positive, but if staffing outpaces funding alignment, the margin gets squeezed, especially with RN time also rising. A separate Mirus survey of 294 professionals found that 56% of providers are most worried about either meeting minute compliance or workforce overspend, with many admitting patchy visibility on whether delivered minutes are fully funded. In short, compliance success can still equal cost pressure.

3) Price signals are flashing: room rates and RADs are climbing

The pricing lens is shifting too. In July, advertised room prices rose around 1.2% month-on-month. Since the RAD ceiling increased on 1 January to $750k, Mirus has tracked average RAD prices up 8.7% year-to-date, with hundreds of providers moving their top and bottom price points. Pricing power helps until affordability bites or value perception lags. Expect closer scrutiny of amenity upgrades, premium offerings, and genuine differentiation if RAD settings remain elevated, according to the Mirus analysis.

4) The cycle is real: don’t mistake capacity for immunity

Mirus flagged the first return above 90% in January 2025, the first time since December 2019. Since then, there have been month-to-month soft patches such as the mid-year dip in occupied bed days, even as the broader trend lifted. Occupancy is cyclical. When the curve turns, the providers that manage admissions mix, staffing alignment, and capital pricing — not just headcount in beds — will rebound faster.

Executive takeaways

Watch the mix, not just the rate.

A respite-heavy occupancy story complicates forecasting and can depress lifetime value per admission. Build dashboards that separate permanent versus respite occupancy and track length-of-stay trends monthly.

Align minutes with money.

Minutes over target without funding alignment cause silent margin erosion. Tighten minute-to-funding reconciliation and set guardrails for overspend.

Price with proof.

With room rates and RADs rising, ensure the “why” is visible: refurbishment programs, clinical capability, amenity uplift, and outcomes. Regulators and referrers will look for substance behind sticker changes.

Scenario-plan the down-cycle.

January’s milestone and the mid-year wobble are reminders that momentum can shift quickly. Build “what-if” plans for a one-to-two point occupancy slide combined with elevated staffing minutes and stickier wage costs.